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Global Trade Forecast Downgraded Due to Tariff Uncertainty

The World Trade Organization (WTO) has downgraded its global trade forecast, citing uncertainty surrounding US President Donald Trump’s tariff policies.


Global trade in goods is expected to decrease by 0.2% this year, with a potential 1.5% slump if the US imposes its toughest tariffs on most nations.

Key Impacts:

  • North America: Exports expected to fall 12.6%, imports by 9.6%
  • Global Growth: Uncertainty threatens to slow global growth, negatively impacting vulnerable economies
  • Trade Policy: Tariffs have wide-ranging and often unintended consequences

Tariff Developments:

  • Trump suspended the toughest tariffs for 90 days to allow over 70 countries to address US trade concerns
  • Taxes on Chinese imports increased to 145%
  • Ongoing disputes with Canada and Mexico over tariffs

Expert Insights:

  • “The enduring uncertainty threatens to act as a brake on global growth,” said WTO Director-General Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala
  • WTO Chief Economist Ralph Ossa noted that trade policy uncertainty significantly dampens trade flows and weakens economic activity.

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